"Everyone's got a plan until they get punched in the mouth." It's one of Mike Tyson's favorite lines, and I've been thinking about it again while watching his new Netflix documentary.
Here's what I've learned about getting punched. For years I swung between two mistakes: underestimating what something would take, and overestimating what I could carry. Both are symptoms of the same problem. Capacity and capability. Big ideas in my head, meeting the physical realities of this world.
Being wrong isn't the problem
You and I will both guess wrong a lot. The problem is not getting better at guessing. Some people call it guesstimation.
Daniel Kahneman calls it System 1 and System 2. You need a fast gut, so trust your first reaction, and you need the slow math, the slow work of calculating and being logical. His argument is that good decisions need both.
How other people estimate you
Then there's how other people size you up. In Game of Thrones, Tywin Lannister tells Cersei that he distrusts her because she's not as smart as she thinks she is.
Get underestimated long enough and you'll start to believe it. Overestimate yourself and nobody can tell you anything.
My fix: ask your five
Once a year, I ask the five people I'm closest to for my five greatest strengths and my five greatest weaknesses.
Over time I've learned they're usually the same thing. They land on the same list depending on the day. My stubbornness on a Monday is a weakness. By Friday it's my greatest skill, because I don't quit. I don't give up.
Strangers don't have that kind of data. The people closest to you do. Even then, be careful: sometimes our loved ones are trying to protect us, or they don't see the whole picture. They aren't as close to our thoughts and ideas as we are.
Your homework
This week, text your five. Ask for the same two lists: what you're strong at and what you're weak in. Don't argue. Don't get emotional. Just listen. You can start by sending them this post.
Calibrate, then execute.
Editor's notes
- This essay originally began as a voice memo
- The Tyson documentary is on Netflix and was "new" when I wrote this.
- The Tywin line is paraphrased. The scene's wording is roughly "I don't distrust you because you're a woman, I distrust you because you're not as smart as you think you are."
- Kahneman's System 1 / System 2 is from Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011)